By Mayté Rodríguez Cedillo and Fernando Favela  ·  Travel Intelligence  ·  BajaTraveler.com

The numbers arrived faster than anyone expected. Within five weeks of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, the price of jet fuel in the United States had nearly doubled — from $2.50 to $4.88 per gallon (Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index, April 2, 2026). Fuel, already the second-largest cost for airlines after labor, now accounts for up to 30–40% of operating expenses at some carriers. The arithmetic is simple and the consequences are not.

Average global airfares hit $465 for the week beginning March 9, 2026 — a 24% increase compared to the same week in 2025 and the highest level recorded for that date since at least 2019 (OAG Global Aviation Data).

Summer bookings are tracking 18% above summer 2025 prices. Tourism Economics projects fares will remain 5–10% above pre-conflict forecasts for all of 2026 and into 2027.

The mechanism is direct: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply and cut off the 470,000 barrels of refined jet fuel that Middle Eastern refineries shipped daily to airports in Europe and beyond (S&P Global, March 2026). Strategic petroleum reserves can release crude — but crude is not jet fuel, and processing takes five to six weeks. The shortage is structural, not speculative.

Airlines have responded with layered measures. United became the first U.S. carrier to cut approximately 5% of planned routes for Q2 and Q3 2026. Cathay Pacific doubled fuel surcharges from March 18. Air France-KLM added €50 to round-trip fares. JetBlue and United raised checked bag fees — charges that, unlike base fares, carry no federal excise tax and are unlikely to come back down once fuel prices normalize. Korean Air entered emergency management mode on April 1.

The broader economic transmission is equally consequential. Gasoline at U.S. pumps averaged $3.98 per gallon by March 24 — a 35% increase in one month (AAA). Economists at Moody’s warn that consumers face compressed purchasing power precisely as travel demand for summer peaks. The Federal Reserve has signaled it will hold rates steady while assessing the inflationary impact, which further limits relief from monetary policy. In parallel, airline stocks fell approximately 25% from the start of the conflict (NBC News, March 31, 2026), raising questions about capacity investment through the rest of the year.

One data point frames the traveler’s dilemma precisely: the average transcontinental U.S. flight (New York–Los Angeles) rose from $167 to $414 — a 148% increase — in the weeks following the conflict (Deutsche Bank, March 2026). The traveler who waited is paying more than twice as much for the same seat.